Bird flu pandemic may be ‘unfolding in slow motion,’ scientists warn
Scientists tracking the spread of bird flu are increasingly concerned that gaps in surveillance may keep them several steps behind a new pandemic, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen leading disease experts.
Many of them have been monitoring the new subtype of H5N1 avian flu in migratory birds since 2020. But the spread of the virus to 129 dairy herds in 12 U.S. states signals a change that could bring it closer to becoming transmissible between humans. Infections also have been found in other mammals, from alpacas to house cats.
‘A note of caution’
Canada is testing retail milk for bird flu
CEPI aims to create a library of prototype vaccines for pathogens with pandemic potential. This would help drugmakers initiate large-scale production and distribute shots where necessary within 100 days of an outbreak.
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Some countries are taking steps to protect people against H5N1. The United States and Europe are securing doses of “pre-pandemic” flu vaccine that could be used for high-risk groups, including farm or lab workers. Finland is expected to become the first country to inoculate fur and poultry farm workers, as well as animal health response workers.
Expanding vaccine access is also complex, said the WHO’s Zhang. Manufacturers of potential pandemic flu vaccines make seasonal flu shots and cannot produce both at once, she said.
Since most flu vaccines are made using virus-grown-in eggs, it could take up to six months to produce pandemic shots. The U.S. is in talks with Moderna MRNA.O to use their faster mRNA technology for pandemic flu shots.
The experts all acknowledged a need to balance acting quickly to avert a threat versus overreacting.
“We want to sound a note of caution,” said Wendy Barclay, a virologist at Imperial College London who also advises the UK Health Security Agency on avian flu, “without saying the world is about to end.”
