Technology

El Niño expected to smash heat records in 2024

/ Justine CalmaEl Nino Phenomenon Causes Drought In Tangerang

Two maps depict global temperatures under a) a moderate El Niño scenario and b) a strong El Niño scenario. The regions expected to experience record-breaking heat are marked by blue dots. Black boxes in (b) note hard-hit regions: the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, the Caribbean Sea , Alaska, and the Amazon.

a:hover]:text-gray-63 [&>a:hover]:shadow-underline-black dark:[&>a:hover]:text-gray-bd dark:[&>a:hover]:shadow-underline-gray [&>a]:shadow-underline-gray-63 dark:[&>a]:text-gray-bd dark:[&>a]:shadow-underline-gray”>Image: Ning Jiang and Congwen Zhu via Scientific Reports

A strong El Niño would also break temperature records across the Caribbean, South China Sea, Amazon, and Alaska this year, according to the new research. The Caribbean, South China Sea, and Bay of Bengal could all face year-round marine heatwaves under this more extreme scenario. Severe drought could fuel wildfires in the Amazon, while sky-high temperatures might speed the loss of glaciers and permafrost in Alaska. Strong El Niños in the past have cost the global economy trillions of dollars.

Fortunately, the world might dodge a bullet this year with a moderate El Niño now looking most likely. But even that is expected to be enough to push the world past a new record for global average surface temperature by June. El Niño is forecast to end by then, but typically rolls back around every two to seven years.