Road oil demand to peak by 2032 as EVs become more common, Goldman forecasts

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The bank expects the rise of NEVs and internal combustion engine efficiency gains to reduce oil use per vehicle by 65 per cent to 285 gallons per vehicle a year by 2040.


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Goldman expects the global number of vehicles, including NEVs, to grow by 60 per cent by 2040.

Road oil demand in emerging markets excluding China is seen growing through 2040, which roughly offsets ongoing declines in OECD nations and soon in China, where demand is expected to peak in 2025, Goldman said.

Goldman said the timing of the road oil peak could range from 2025 to after 2040 under alternative paths for economic growth and NEVs. Petrochemical and jet products have firmer growth prospects, the bank added.

Goldman’s base case of a long road oil plateau sits between the lower International Energy Agency forecast and higher U.S. Energy Information Administration and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts.

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: World