Russia warns of nuclear weapon drills to ‘cool down’ West. Is it bluffing?
Russia’s announcement Monday that it will begin practising the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in military drills could set a dangerous precedent for using nuclear threats in diplomacy, analysts warn.
The United States later said it would not be changing its nuclear posture in response to the announcement, underscoring what those experts say is the continued belief that Russia is unlikely to actually use nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine or against NATO allies.
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An attack on Russian infrastructure “could have some effect on the Russian population’s willingness to continue to send their brothers off to die for — it’s not very clear what.”
Russia has about 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists, though there is uncertainty about exact figures for such weapons due to a lack of transparency.
Putin has faced calls inside Russia from some hardliners to change Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which sets out the conditions under which Russia would use a nuclear weapon, though Putin said last year he saw no need for change.
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Broadly, the doctrine says such a weapon would be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or the use of conventional weapons against Russia “when the very existence of the state is put under threat.”
Erath said the continued threat of nuclear weapons makes it all the more critical to ensure Ukraine’s victory in the war. That includes ensuring Russia isn’t seen as having successfully used those threats to hold onto seized Ukrainian territory through any kind of negotiated peace agreement.
“That sets a very disturbing precedent of nuclear weapons becoming normalized as a tool of diplomacy,” he said.
“What is (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un going to think about that? How is that going to affect his policy? How might China approach a Taiwan crisis? Will Iran decide to remain non-nuclear now that they have pretty much all capabilities they need to build such weapons?”
