Silence guns not trade: Africa’s entrapped trade corridors worsen AfCFTA implementation

The recent tension over reported military takeover of the Congo Brazzaville government, though dismissed, shows that the contagion may continue to spread. With no end in sight to resurging military juntas and accompanying sanctions as well as reprisal actions, the prospect of improved trade among Africans appears to have been caught in the middle, TOBI AWODIPE writes.The bilateral trade deficit between Nigeria and Africa continues to widen in favour of the rest of the world, even more so in the last five years. Data sourced from the John Hopkins China-Africa Research Initiative revealed that China’s exports to Nigeria last year stood at $23.9 billion and $164.16 billion for the whole of Africa. Imports from Nigeria for the same time frame were just $1.6 billion, a deficit of over 22 million dollars.Nigeria was not even among the top 10 countries that exported to China in 2022 at just $375 million, according to the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC). In 2021, Nigeria was the largest buyer of Chinese goods, valued at $23 billion or N10 trillion followed by South Africa and Egypt while South Africa, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are the largest exporters to China.Further analysis showed that the trade volume in Africa has been on a steady decline since 2021 when AfCFTA kicked off. In 2020, the percentage of Nigeria’s trade with other African countries stood at 11.03 per cent and fell to 7.46 per cent in 2021 and went even further down to 6.5 per cent last year.Stakeholders and trade experts say the effects of coups can disrupt existing trade agreements and treaties among countries, resulting in the suspension or renegotiation of trade deals and creating barriers to the free movement of goods, services and capital. Travel limitations by regional bodies and the closure of both land and air borders are among the aftermaths of coups. Nationwide curfews are regularly imposed during specified hours. As a result, trade activities have come to a standstill.