Ukraine is expected to soon get its hands on the most powerful long-range weapon systems delivered by the U.S. during the war with Russia to date, thanks to a requirement in the massive national security aid package signed into law Wednesday.
The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted to approve the package passed by the House of Representatives last weekend that includes US$61 billion for Ukraine, finally unlocking a new round of military aid after months of delay.
The Ukraine aid bill includes a stipulation that Biden could withhold the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine if he determines it “would be detrimental to the national security interests of the United States,” and notify Congress of his decision and reasoning.
Analysts say despite the growing calls from Ukraine supporters to supply the missiles, questions remain about whether Ukraine will use them in a way that raises the stakes of the war.
Kyiv has already embarked on a controversial campaign of drone attacks on oil and energy facilities inside mainland Russia, including a strike in the province of Tatarstan earlier this month that marked Ukraine’s deepest attack inside Russian territory since the war began. It has also continued its attacks on Russia’s fleet in the Black Sea.
“I guess the question is, what kind of safeguards are you going to have for Ukraine to not use (ATACMS) against targets in Russia proper, rather than territory that the Russians have taken,” said Richard Shimooka, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute who focuses on defence policy.
Although Ukraine has so far demonstrated its accuracy in targeting Russian military targets, Shimooka continued, “What happens if they miss and hit a civilian target? Then what do you do?
“I think that’s what still has the Americans concerned.”
—with files from The Associated Press
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